IATA Revises African Airlines’ Net Profit Forecast to $100 Million in 2026

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised African airlines’ net profit forecast for 2026 to $100 million.

The projection is contained in IATA’s Global Outlook for Air Transport – Energy in Crisis, released in June 2026 under its Sustainability and Economics outlook.

The new estimate is lower than the $200 million net profit forecast issued in IATA’s December 2025 financial outlook for the global airline industry.

What the report is saying

The data from IATA’s latest outlook points to a significant decline in profitability for African airlines in 2026 despite rising passenger demand. The region is expected to remain the fastest-growing aviation market globally in terms of traffic, but earnings are projected to weaken sharply.

African airlines are projected to generate a combined net profit of $100 million in 2026, down from $300 million in 2025.

Net profit margin is expected to compress to 0.2% in 2026, compared with 1.6% in 2025.

Earnings per passenger are forecast to fall to $0.40 in 2026, down from $2.10 in 2025.

Passenger demand (RPK) is expected to grow by 10.0% in 2026, outpacing 9.8% growth in 2025.

The figures indicate that while demand is expanding, profitability is being eroded by cost pressures and operational constraints across the region.

The report further shows that capacity growth is not fully keeping pace with demand, with African airlines expected to expand capacity by 7.7% in 2026 compared with 8.7% in 2025.

More insights

The broader global aviation outlook also reflects weakening profitability even as revenue remains strong. IATA estimates global airline revenue at $1.165 trillion in 2026, but net profit is expected to fall to $23 billion, with a margin of 2.0%.

Regionally, performance remains uneven:

• Africa: $100 million profit (0.2% margin), down from $300 million in 2025.
• Middle East: $4.3 billion loss, reversing a $7.2 billion profit in 2025.
• Asia Pacific: $6.6 billion profit, down from $9.8 billion.
• Europe: $9.6 billion profit, down from $13 billion. North America: $9.4 billion profit, down from $12.4 billion.

African aviation continues to operate under sustained cost pressure, with profitability increasingly squeezed by rising fuel costs, currency volatility, weak infrastructure, and limited access to financing, even as passenger demand remains strong across the region.

The International Air Transport Association has identified jet fuel volatility as a key structural challenge for airlines, noting that the impact varies significantly depending on carriers’ ability to hedge against price swings in global energy markets.

Global jet fuel refining margins have also surged, with North West Europe crack spreads reaching as high as $121 per barrel, reflecting tighter supply conditions and ongoing geopolitical and logistical disruptions in energy markets.

These pressures have translated into operational strain in several markets, with airlines reporting disruptions, cancellations, and periodic fuel supply constraints.

In Nigeria, carriers remain highly exposed to global fuel price movements due to limited hedging practices, making operating costs more sensitive to both crude oil price shifts and foreign exchange fluctuations.

More recently, attention has shifted to evolving global supply dynamics, including the role of the Dangote Refinery, which emerged as the largest jet fuel exporter in April 2026 amid shifting international fuel trade flows.

Nigeria’s aviation sector remains under pressure from high jet fuel costs, foreign exchange constraints, and operational inefficiencies that continue to weigh on airline profitability and capacity planning.

The Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) previously warned that Jet A1 prices rose sharply from about N900 per litre to over N3,000 per litre, describing the spike as unsustainable for airline operations.

Jet fuel marketers, however, have disputed claims of extreme price spikes, arguing that reported peak levels did not reflect actual market transactions.

In response, the Federal Government introduced a 30% relief on statutory airline charges and also set indicative Jet A1 pricing in Lagos between N1,760 and N1,988 per litre to ease cost pressures on airlines.

Airlines have since adjusted operations, with several carriers reducing flight frequencies and cutting routes, while also implementing slight increases in air fares to partly offset higher operating costs.